SISbets.com

Methodology Baseball

Sports Info Solutions has been at the forefront of baseball data and analytics for over 15 years. The company has been a driving force behind the Sabermetric Revolution and the Moneyball Era, due in part to groundbreaking analytical contributions such as Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).

Beginning in 2016, John Dewan led a group of colleagues on a venture to build the most comprehensive predictive model imaginable using its extensive database and analytical prowess. From this project spawned the original “Model 1”, which has undergone extensive testing and development behind the scenes to eventually lead us to the premier DFS tool that is now available for the 2019 MLB season – “SIS Model 4”.

In the advent of legalized sports betting, Dewan and company have adapted some of the methods behind the model and tailored it towards sports betting to be used as a leading source of predictive information to help inform sharp prop betting. A series of factors are weighted and synthesized to come up with the sharpest predictions using the following elements:

First, elements involving the player themselves are analyzed and weighted, such as:

— Player age and how each stat is specifically affected by his age
— Career performance
— Recent performance and specific recency weightings for each stat
— Home park of the player (where they play half their games)

Secondly, elements that affect player performance based on game conditions are considered and evaluated:

— Performance vs. the handedness of the opposing pitcher
— Quality of the opposing pitcher including how well the pitcher performs based on batter handedness
— How the park affects performance (including specialized Coors Field analytics)
— Temperature at game time
— Wind speed and direction at game time
— Pitchers-friendly umps and hitter-friendly umps
— Where the hitter hits in the lineup
— Quality of other players in the lineup
— How offensive support affects a pitcher’s likelihood to get a win
— How each stat is independently affected by each one of these elements
— How individual player tendencies and relevant timing data affect stolen bases

The system also features:

— Speedy updates thanks to SIS Video Scouts and IT staff churning out the latest roster, lineup, and injury information.
— SIS’ proprietary Defensive-Independent Batting & Pitching Statistics (DIBS & DIPS) formula, which uses batted ball characteristics (velocity, trajectory, and location) to determine expected outcomes for every ball in play.
— The renowned player projections system derived by Bill James and John Dewan

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